2025 Holiday Shopping Intentions Reveal Consumer Volatility That Will Shape the Timing and Performance of the Season, Reports Circana
Holiday shoppers plan have expectations of higher prices and plan to spend more this year, but they are prepared to make adjustments in how and when they shop.
CHICAGO, Oct. 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CHICAGO, October 7, 2025 — U.S. consumer sentiment and intentions suggest that the 2025 holiday shopping season will be less predictable and more spread out than any other year. Most holiday shoppers plan to spend about the same as last year, but there is an increase in those planning on spending more, according to the annual holiday purchase intentions consumer survey from Circana, LLC. More than 80% of holiday shoppers expect prices to be higher this year as a result of tariffs and other economic factors. That expectation of higher prices will impact what, where, and when consumers shop, with more holiday shoppers planning on getting an earlier start to avoid possible future price increases and take advantage of early season promotions.
“The volatility of consumers is evident in their feelings about the holiday shopping season, which means the flow of the 2025 holiday shopping season will be less predictable,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor for Circana. “While consumer spending to date has demonstrated resilience, final retail holiday results will be greatly influenced by the timing of everything from promotions to the news of the day.”
Consumers plan to spend more, and they are planning ways to mitigate that additional spending.
- Going hand-in-hand with the expectations of higher prices, on average, consumers plan to spend $796 on holiday shopping this year, which is 3% higher than last year’s spending intentions.
- More than a third (34%) of holiday shoppers say they will take advantage of more deals this year.
- Higher prices may result in fewer gifts to wrap, as 31% of shoppers say they will buy fewer items this holiday.
Holiday shoppers have expanded the duration of their shopping season with an early start.
- Almost half of consumers plan on starting their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, and 24% have already started or even finished, up nearly 4 percentage points from last year.
- Black Friday remains the most popular of the traditional shopping days, with 19% planning it as the kick-off to their holiday shopping.
- The number of consumers planning to wait till December, thereby getting a late start to holiday shopping, is the lowest (19%) it has been in recent years.
Prioritization is paramount for holiday shoppers.
- Practicality takes center stage as consumers are planning on spending more on things like home appliances, housewares, and sporting goods.
- Consumers plan to spend more on lower cost indulgences like beauty products, but planned spending is down for some of the traditionally higher ticket purchases like technology, electronics, and home improvement products.
- Nearly two-thirds of consumers indicate that their household grocery costs will have an impact on their holiday shopping this year.
“Holiday 2025 will be full of surprises and challenges — from comparisons to the 2024 election impact and continuous economic uncertainty, to the influence of social media influence and the spirit of the holiday season,” added Cohen. “Marketers will need to be diligent in their efforts to inspire the consumer, whether it is tapping into pent-up demand for products from key industries, like apparel, toys, and technology, or appealing to the consumer’s core value of the moment — whether price or priority.”
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About Circana
Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.
Janine Marshall Circana 5166252356 janine.marshall@circana.com
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