AGP Executive Report

Germany Ties: Mongolia and Germany agreed to deepen cooperation in the economy, renewable energy and education during President Khürelsükh’s state visit; Mongolia also plans to open a consulate in Frankfurt. Banking: Golomt Bank secured a $50 million development finance loan, while Baiduri Bank priced its first overseas bond. Public Finances: Government revenue and grants rose 17.2% year on year to MNT 26.1 trillion in the first nine months, with tax receipts up 11.4%. Mining Finance: Entrée Resources plans to raise up to C$31.9 million, including investment from a Tether affiliate, to support work on its Oyu Tolgoi joint venture licences and state ownership discussions. Energy: Mongolia accepted TMK Energy’s declaration of discovery for its Gurvantes coal-seam gas project, opening the next evaluation stage but not confirming commercial production. Coal Trade: China’s coal imports from Mongolia dipped 8% in September, though shipments were up 40% year to date to 86.93 million tonnes.

Mining Finance: Entrée Resources plans to raise up to C$31.9 million, including investment from a Tether affiliate, to strengthen its balance sheet as it works on the Oyu Tolgoi joint venture’s mining licences and state-ownership issues. Germany Ties: President Khürelsükh’s Berlin visit is focused on trade, investment, banking and finance; Mongolia also plans to open a consulate in Frankfurt. Public Finances: Government revenue and grants rose 17.2% year on year to MNT 26.1 trillion in the first nine months, while spending and net lending increased 11.3% to MNT 24.6 trillion. Energy: Construction of the China-funded Erdeneburen hydropower plant is 40% complete; the project is intended to boost domestic power supply and cut import dependence. Separately, TMK Energy’s gas discovery declaration was accepted, moving its South Gobi project into evaluation—but not granting a production licence. Coal Trade: Mongolia’s September coal shipments to China eased 8% year on year, though exports for the year to date were up 40% to 86.93 million tonnes.

Energy: Construction of the $266.4 million Erdeneburen hydropower plant is 40% complete. The China-funded project is intended to boost domestic power generation and reduce imports. Mining: Erdene reported higher Q3 gold output at Bayan Khundii and repaid another $20 million in debt, with production expected to strengthen further in Q4. Rio Tinto also reported a sharp rise in copper output at Oyu Tolgoi. Investment & Trade: Japan is lending Mongolia $1 billion to expand Chinggis Khaan Airport, while 120 business representatives attended the Mongolia–Singapore Business Forum. Mongolia’s interim free-trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union has also taken effect. Economic Pressures: Inflation reached 12.9% in September. Markets: US retailer Quince has launched in the UK, selling Mongolian cashmere jumpers for £50.

Energy Infrastructure: Erdeneburen Hydropower Plant construction has reached 40%. The $266.4 million project, financed by a Chinese concessional loan, is expected to boost domestic power supply and reduce import dependence. Mining: Erdene reported slightly higher Q3 gold production at Bayan Khundii and a further $20 million debt repayment, with higher output expected in Q4; its Zuun Mod study also points to a major undeveloped molybdenum deposit. Rio Tinto separately reported a 30% rise in copper production at Oyu Tolgoi. Project Finance: Aspire Mining has cut upfront costs for its Ovoot coal project, but financing remains unsecured and transport approvals are pending. Economic Policy: Mongolia has joined the World Bank’s IDA fund as a donor, pledging 4.8 billion tugrik ($1.3 million), after decades as a recipient. September inflation rose to 12.9%, while the Bank of Mongolia and IMF are working to improve the monetary policy framework. Regional Business: Khovd Eco Cement, which began exporting to Russia this year, is seeking support to expand exports and plans to supply 100,000 tonnes annually to Eurasian markets.

Industrial Growth: Prime Minister N. Uchral pledged support for Khovd’s industrial park and Eco Cement, which employs more than 350 people, began exporting to Russia and aims to ship 100,000 tonnes a year. Trade & Transport: Mongolia’s exports topped $16 billion in the first nine months; a new 127-kilometre railway will bypass Ulaanbaatar, while the Zamiin-Uud logistics center expects to handle 111,000 containers this year. Japan has also lent Mongolia $1 billion to expand Chinggis Khaan Airport. Mining & Energy: Rio Tinto reported a strong rise in copper output from Mongolia. ACWA Power and Sun Steppe Power are exploring a 4.5-gigawatt renewable energy export project to China. Prices & Business: Inflation reached 12.9% in September. Public anger is growing over a wildfire in a protected reserve that Mobicom says began when a company vehicle caught fire; authorities have pledged accountability and compensation for state losses.

Regional Industry: Prime Minister N. Uchral pledged support for the Shine Khovd Industrial and Technology Park and Khovd Eco Cement. The plant employs more than 350 people, has begun exporting to Russia and plans to ship 100,000 tonnes a year, while seeking help to reach Eurasian markets. Development Finance: Mongolia has joined the World Bank’s donor group for its fund serving the world’s poorest countries, approving a $1.3 million contribution after receiving more than $1.62 billion in World Bank financing since 1991. Urban Transport: Ulaanbaatar is targeting construction of BYD’s battery-powered Sky Shuttle system from March 2027, with trial operations planned for November. The elevated transit project’s design is due by December, and officials are considering competitive selection or a public-private partnership.

Development Finance: Mongolia has become a World Bank donor for the first time, approving a 4.8 billion tugrik ($1.3 million) contribution to the fund for the world’s poorest countries after graduating from its support in 2020. Urban Transport: Ulaanbaatar plans to begin building BYD’s elevated electric “Sky Shuttle” system in March 2027, with trial operations targeted for November; the feasibility study is due by December. Mining: Rio Tinto reported a strong rise in copper output from its Mongolian mine in its latest quarterly update, while keeping overall production guidance unchanged. Trade and Growth: Mongolia’s exports topped $16 billion in the first nine months, and foreign trade turnover rose about 35%; inflation reached 12.9% in September, while the country’s BB- credit rating outlook remains stable. Cross-Border Links: Installation of the main beams for the Gantsmod-Gashuunsukhait railway link is complete, advancing a new connection between Mongolia and China.

Development Finance: Mongolia has become a World Bank donor for the first time, approving 4.8 billion tugriks ($1.3 million) for the fund supporting the world’s poorest countries, after receiving more than $1.62 billion in World Bank financing since 1991. Urban Transit: Ulaanbaatar plans to build BYD’s elevated electric Sky Shuttle, with construction targeted for March 2027 and trial operations in November. Trade & Prices: Exports topped $16 billion in the first nine months as foreign trade turnover grew about 35%; September inflation climbed to 12.9%. Mining: Rio Tinto reported a sharp rise in copper output at its Mongolian mine, while keeping overall production guidance unchanged. Investment & Connectivity: President Khurelsukh’s October 19–22 state visit to Germany will include a business forum focused on expanding economic ties. Work also advanced on the second China–Mongolia cross-border railway, a project expected to strengthen transport links.

Urban Transport: Ulaanbaatar has signed a preliminary agreement with BYD for its elevated electric “Sky Shuttle.” Designs are due by December, with construction targeted for March 2027 and trial operations later that year; the project may use a public-private partnership. Mining: Rio Tinto kept its guidance unchanged in its latest quarterly update, while copper output at its Mongolian operations rose sharply, up 30% in the quarter. Trade and Prices: Mongolia’s exports topped US$16 billion in the first nine months, as foreign trade turnover rose about 35%. Inflation reached 12.9% in September, adding pressure on households and businesses. Infrastructure: Installation of the main beams on the Gantsmod-Gashuunsukhait cross-border railway is complete, advancing a second rail link with China. The Zamiin-Uud logistics center is expected to handle 111,000 containers this year. Investment: ACWA Power and Mongolia’s Sun Steppe Power are exploring a 4.5-gigawatt renewable-energy project to export power to China. President Khurelsukh’s October 19–22 state visit to Germany will include a bilateral business forum focused on expanding trade and economic ties.

Transport Investment: Ulaanbaatar signed an MoU with BYD to study an elevated electric “Sky Shuttle,” with construction targeted for March 2027. Japan is lending $1 billion to expand Chinggis Khaan Airport, while installation work on the China–Mongolia cross-border railway advanced. Mining and Energy: Rio Tinto reported a 30% rise in copper output at its Mongolian mine. ACWA and Sun Steppe Power are exploring a 4.5 GW renewables export project to China. Trade and Prices: Mongolia’s trade turnover rose nearly 35% in the first nine months, with exports exceeding $16 billion; September inflation reached 12.9%. A new railway bypassing Ulaanbaatar and a logistics center expected to handle 111,000 containers this year aim to strengthen freight links. Business Ties: President Khurelsukh’s upcoming Germany visit will include a business forum, while Mongolia and Singapore are seeking to expand commercial ties.

Mining: Mongolian Mining Corporation reported that Chinese coking-coal prices rebounded in the July–September quarter, citing constrained domestic supply. Rio Tinto also reported a 30% increase in copper output at Oyu Tolgoi. Oyu Tolgoi dividends: The government plans to put MNT 3 trillion in expected dividends into citizens’ savings accounts, not pay it out in cash; MNT 2 trillion is proposed for economic development, including energy. Trade and prices: Mongolia’s foreign trade turnover rose nearly 35% in the first nine months, with exports topping US$16 billion. Annual inflation reached 12.9% in September. Investment and ties: President Khurelsukh’s October 19–22 state visit to Germany will include a business forum focused on expanding economic links. A Singapore forum drew 120 business representatives, while ACWA Power and Sun Steppe Power are exploring a 4.5-gigawatt renewable energy export project to China. Transport: The Zamiin-Uud logistics center is expected to handle 1.8 million tonnes of cargo this year, supporting trade along the Russia–Mongolia–China corridor.

Oyu Tolgoi Dividends: The government says the expected MNT 3 trillion will not be paid out as cash: MNT 1 trillion is proposed for the Future Heritage Fund and MNT 2 trillion for economic development, including energy. Germany Visit: President Khürelsükh’s October 19–22 state visit will include a Mongolia-Germany Business Forum and talks on expanding trade and investment. Electric Vehicles: Fuel shortages are driving Mongolian drivers toward Chinese EVs; a national plan calls for about 500 fast-charging stations over the next two years. Mining Investment: Erdene’s Zuun Mod project study estimates a 34-year mine life, US$745 million after-tax value and US$687 million in upfront costs, with potential Asian offtake interest. Economic Outlook: Mongolia’s foreign trade turnover rose nearly 35% in the first nine months, with exports exceeding US$16 billion, while September inflation reached 12.9%.

Fuel Shift: Shortages of petrol and diesel are accelerating interest in Chinese electric vehicles; Mongolia plans about 500 fast-charging stations over the next two years. Trade Links: Kyrgyzstan is looking to expand fruit, vegetable and livestock exports to Mongolia. President Khürelsükh’s October 19–22 state visit to Germany will include a business forum focused on strengthening economic ties. Mining Investment: Erdene’s Zuun Mod project assessment estimates a US$745 million after-tax value and a 16.1% return, based on long-term metal prices, with US$687 million in upfront costs. Rio Tinto said Oyu Tolgoi copper output rose 27% in the third quarter. Energy Exports: ACWA and Mongolia’s Sun Steppe Power will assess a 4.5-gigawatt renewable energy project, backed by battery storage, for potential exports to China. Economic Pulse: September inflation reached 12.9%, while exports totaled US$16.6 billion in the first nine months and foreign trade turnover rose about 35%.

Renewables Export: Saudi Arabia’s ACWA and Mongolia’s Sun Steppe Power will assess a 4.5-GW wind and solar project, with battery storage and transmission to China or other markets. Mining: Rio Tinto reported Oyu Tolgoi copper output rose 27% in the third quarter, offsetting declines elsewhere. Trade and Investment: Foreign trade turnover rose nearly 35% in the first nine months, exports topped $16 billion and foreign reserves reached a record $8.9 billion. At a Mongolia-Singapore business forum, more than 120 representatives explored investment opportunities; applications for joint carbon-credit projects open October 30. Economic Pressures: September inflation reached 12.9%, while parliament rewrote fiscal rules after the budget breached them. Infrastructure: Japan is lending $1 billion to expand Chinggis Khaan Airport, lifting annual capacity to 5.2 million passengers. Mongolia also opened a 127-kilometre railway bypassing Ulaanbaatar.

Mining: Rio Tinto’s third-quarter update showed copper output at Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi mine up 27%, offsetting declines elsewhere and leaving the miner’s overall copper production broadly flat. Business Ties: More than 120 representatives from Mongolia and Singapore explored investment in finance, green business and technology; the countries will open applications for joint carbon-credit projects on October 30. Prices: September inflation climbed to 12.9%, driven mainly by more expensive imports, while housing prices rose 7.6% year on year. Energy and Infrastructure: Mongolia signed an energy cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia covering oil and gas, renewables, electricity and storage. Japan is providing a $1 billion loan to expand Chinggis Khaan Airport, with capacity set to rise to 5.2 million passengers a year. Trade and Transport: Mongolia’s exports exceeded $16 billion in the first nine months, while a new railway route is set to bypass Ulaanbaatar.

Prices and Trade: Mongolia’s September inflation rose to 12.9%, up 0.6 percentage points from August, as imported goods drove prices higher. In the first nine months, exports reached $16.6 billion and foreign trade turnover grew about 35%; Mongolia’s BB- credit rating was affirmed with a stable outlook. Investment and Energy: Mongolia and Saudi Arabia signed an energy cooperation agreement covering oil and gas, renewables, electricity, storage and technology, while a Mongolia-Singapore business forum drew 120 representatives and opened new prospects for trade, investment and carbon-credit projects. Infrastructure and Industry: A 127-kilometer railway bypassing Ulaanbaatar has opened, and the government is pressing ahead with the Erdenet copper-smelting complex, whose infrastructure is 70% complete. Monetary Policy: The Bank of Mongolia and IMF are working to strengthen forecasting and policy tools as the central bank upgrades its monetary framework.